Tuesday, December 3

For Trump, Africa is either a deal to be made or a problem to be ignored—there is nothing in between.

Unlike previous American presidents who dressed colonialism in aid packages, Trump’s transactional worldview strips away diplomatic niceties.

As our ancestors noted, ‘A snake you can see cannot bite.’ His unfiltered approach forces Africa to confront three realities that could reshape our future.

Before we explore these opportunities, consider this: While U.S.-Africa trade plummeted 60% under Trump’s first term, Africa’s response has been remarkable. The African Continental Free Trade Area, our most ambitious economic project, is set to increase intra-African trade by 52.3% by 2025. This isn’t a coincidence—it’s causation

I. The Golden Handcuff Release: Africa’s Forced March to Economic Independence

Let’s start with numbers. During Trump’s first term, US-Africa trade withered like a baobab in drought, plummeting from $100 billion to $41 billion in 2018 alone. Critics declared this a catastrophe, and our political elite wailed like bereaved widows. But look closer.

While Trump was busy building walls, Africa quietly built the largest free trade bridge since the birth of the World Trade Organization. The African Continental Free Trade Area isn’t just some fancy acronym. It’s the most ambitious economic rebellion in modern history. 1.3 billion Africans from the Mediterranean shores to the Cape of Good Hope now operate in a single market. Although relatively small, our combined GDP of $3.4 trillion is an economic war chest. It can lift 30 million of our people out of the poverty colonial structures proudly built.

Let me give you context. Before the AfCFTA, 41 separate trade regulations fragmented our markets. Today, local value chains are emerging in manufacturing, agriculture, and technology. African standards, not European requirements, now guide our trade.

The global chessboard has fundamentally changed. In the last decade, Gulf states have doubled their African infrastructure investments, pledging another $53 billion in 2023.

This multi-polar reality creates unprecedented leverage. Kenya balanced American technology with Chinese hardware when it developed its digital infrastructure. It creates a hybrid system that serves African interests first.

China builds ports, America builds military bases, and India builds institutions. The result? Africa’s first indigenous smartphone manufacturer launched in Rwanda, using Indian technology but African innovation.

But this global realignment comes with complex data backing our success:

  • Kenya’s digital economy grew 5x faster than before
  • Nigeria’s fintech sector attracted $439 million in local investment
  • Ghana’s automotive manufacturing industry created 3,600 new jobs

Rwanda’s drone delivery program became a global model.

II. When the Eagle Flies Away: Africa’s Dance with New Partners

You know how US aid has more strings than a puppet master’s collection? They expect us to dance like puppets – democracy their way, trade their way, even think their way. However, Trump’s “America First” doctrine changed this dance floor entirely.

Let’s  put real numbers to these new partnerships our critics love to demonise:

China isn’t just building debt traps—it’s created 150,000 direct jobs in manufacturing and given African nations 60-85% equity in 20 new ports. Russia’s bilateral trade reached $20 billion.

Are these perfect partnerships? No! But we are learning from our mistakes.

Kenya’s Central Bank Governor recently observed, – ‘We’re learning to leverage multiple partnerships while building our capacity.

Family, let’s understand what this U.S.-China rivalry means for Africa. These superpowers aren’t fighting over our resources out of love for our continent.

Kenya’s President Ruto recently observed, ‘Africa is not a prize to be won or lost in great power competition.‘ We’re seeing the emergence of what economists call ‘strategic hedging’—where African nations leverage competing interests for maximum benefit. For example, Morocco used U.S.-China competition to secure better terms for its high-speed rail project, saving $400 million by playing both sides against the middle.

III. The Mirror Nobody Wanted: Trump’s Gift of Brutal Honesty

When Trump called our nation “shitholes,” our Narcoqueens and Godfathers rushed to Western media to feed their fragile egos. The funny thing is he said what our people yell in marketplaces daily.

But something extraordinary happened:

– Civil society organisations increased

– Anti-corruption protests doubled in major cities

– Youth-led governance initiatives sprouted in 38 countries

– Digital accountability platforms gained millions of users

Before you celebrate too hard, let’s face facts: American withdrawal left the Sahel burning, with terrorist incidents up 150% since 2019. The International Crisis Group reports that terrorist incidents in the Sahel have increased by 150%. But here’s what Western media won’t tell you: African-led initiatives like the G5 Sahel Joint Force have shown promising results in Mali and Burkina Faso. The African Union’s Peace and Security Council data shows that local security cooperation improved by 40% when foreign forces stepped back.

But here’s the real question: Why did we need American troops to secure our borders? American aid to build our hospitals? American approval to make our decisions?

Chink in the Armour: The Disease We Must Cure

We’ve been addicted to American validation longer than a hippopotamus can hold its breath. Our leaders know every five-star hotel in Washington DC. Our policies please World Bank bureaucrats while our markets crumble and our youth flee across the Mediterranean.

This dependency isn’t just economic—it’s psychological. We measure our worth in American approval, success in foreign aid dollars, and progress in World Bank reports. Trump’s victory will further expose this disease, and the continent will suffer.

The trade war’s impact varies across our continent. North African manufacturers benefit from relocated Chinese factories fleeing U.S. tariffs. In return, our commodity-dependent economies suffer from price volatility. The African Export-Import Bank estimates that strategic positioning during this trade war could create 2 million new jobs in African manufacturing. However, the same report warns that poor policy choices could cost us 1.5 million existing jobs.

The African Development Bank’s research reveals an uncomfortable truth: 60% of African countries need more infrastructure and policy frameworks to capitalise on these opportunities.

‘We cannot be spectators in a game played on our home field’, says Dr Adesina. He continues by stating, ‘ Africa’s challenges have always been Africa’s opportunities.’ The real question isn’t whether Trump’s victory helps or hurts – it’s whether we’ll finally take full responsibility for our destiny.

 Tiger’s Roar

Trump’s ‘America First’ doctrine isn’t just another Western policy shift. It should be Africa’s moment of truth. While the world wrings its hands over the direction of American democracy, we must decide. Whether to continue playing the dependent continent or finally become the power we pretend to be in African Union speeches.

Africa, listen up. Our real crisis isn’t Trump’s return—it’s our learned helplessness. We’re like lions raised in captivity, still waiting for the master’s permission to roar. We blame colonial structures while our Narcoqueens and Godfathers build personal empires on Chinese debt. We cry about Western validation while our brightest minds create billion-dollar solutions for Silicon Valley instead of Nairobi, Lagos, or Accra.

Trump’s victory presents us with three unavoidable truths:

1. Economic: No one will build our prosperity while we perfect the art of begging

2. Strategic: Power respects power, not endless potential

3. Political: A continent of 1.3 billion people shouldn’t need permission to rise

Here’s your wake-up call, Africa:

When Trump cuts aid, build businesses

– When he builds walls, build trade routes

– When he says “America First,” make it “Africa Now.”

The question isn’t whether Trump’s America will help or hurt us. The question is: When will we stop asking for permission to be great? Our future won’t be secured in White House meetings or Beijing boardrooms—it will be built in African parliaments, stock exchanges, and innovation hubs.

Trump isn’t our nightmare; our addiction to foreign validation is. His presidency doesn’t mark the end of Africa’s possibilities but the end of our excuses. The eagle may retreat, but the lion must remember how to hunt.

The time for diplomatic niceties is over. The time for action is now. Africa, your moment isn’t coming—it’s here. What will you do with it?

Redefining Africa’s narrative: One audacious cut at a time.

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