Robert Pape, one of America’s leading war scholars, sat down with Steven Bartlett last week before an audience of 5.9 million and counting to describe what he calls an “escalation trap” in the U.S.–Iran war.
China is thrilled! Not nervous. Not cautious about what this means for oil prices and supply chains for Africa, no, they are thrilled.
Thrilled that America is bleeding money, credibility, and time in the Middle East. Thrilled that Trump walked away from a deal, dropped bombs, got rid of the one Supreme Leader who was a guardrail against nuclear weapons, and replaced him with someone radical. Thrilled that the US is now trapped in what Pape calls the escalation trap. Stage one. Stage two. And a terrifying Stage three yet to come.
That phrase escalation trap should have hit every African newsroom like a brick. Why? Because Africa is the prize in a war it was never invited to.
When I was younger, I was taught by my favourite primary school teacher that the world is a stage, and at the moment, so is Iran. Iran is the stage. That means what matters is what happens offstage while the world watches the bombing.
When Washington’s gaze locks onto the Middle East, embassies thin out, programs stall, and the “Africa desk” becomes a voicemail. It happened with Iraq. It happened with Afghanistan. It is happening again right now, faster this time.
That vacuum doesn’t stay empty.
Not sure what America is doing, at least not yet, but China is playing chess. Composed, calm, and nonchalant, China pledged $50.7 billion at the 2024 FOCAC summit. Record trade volumes. Infrastructure on the agenda. No lectures about elections, they threw press freedom to the dogs by not mentioning it. Why should they? And now, with America distracted and bleeding in a war it cannot easily exit, China has even less competition on the continent.
This is not a new story.
Here is the part African leaders need to sit with.
China is not coming to Africa to be a saviour. Say it as you wish, but China is also not the cartoon villain some Western analysts want it to be. The honest truth, we don’t know yet.
China has interests. What matters is Africa’s leverage and whether African governments know how to use it before it expires.
Because China needs Africa right now in a way it may not need Africa five years from now. The cobalt is here. The lithium is here. The manganese, the copper, the rare earth materials that power electric vehicles and AI infrastructure and the entire Chinese industrial buildout are all on the continent. And China needs all 54 African votes at the UN to sustain its Global South narrative. It needs African markets for Chinese goods. It needs political breathing room while it manages a cold war with America.
The leverage has an expiry date and no one from Accra to Addis Ababa is talking about it.
China’s own lending pattern already tells the story. Loan commitments to Africa dropped to about $2.1 billion in 2024. The lowest since the pandemic. Beijing is becoming more selective, more commercially disciplined, and tighter on terms. The era of generous courtship infrastructure lending is ending. China is recalibrating. China is changing the terms slowly.
Africa’s problem is that 54 countries are still walking into those conversations alone.
Tiger’s Roar
I keep saying this. African leaders cannot hear me.
Africa must negotiate as one body. Not country by country. Not president by president flying to Beijing with a shopping list. One body. Coordinated. With unified demands.
The questions African governments should be asking China right now are: What domestic industries are we building from this? What local processing are we securing before the ore leaves the ground? What technology transfer is mandatory? What happens to our debt if a project fails? And can we negotiate these terms regionally so China cannot play Nigeria against Angola against DRC against Zambia?
China benefits from African fragmentation. A continent with 1.4 billion people and the minerals the whole world needs should not keep walking into rooms as 54 isolated clients.
The window is right now. While America is distracted. While China still needs Africa’s goodwill.
When the competition disappears, China’s tone will become tougher. When America effectively retreats from Africa, China will not need to charm anyone. China will set the terms.
China hasn’t fired a single shot in the Iran war, but Robert Pape warns that Beijing may be the quiet winner.
The question Steven Bartlett pressed him on, who really gains from America’s escalation trap, is the question African leaders must answer for themselves.
Africa must decide this year whether it walks in alone and, yet again, offers itself up as somebody else’s prize.
The scramble never really ended. But for one small window, Africa, please unite.
Play them.
Tiger Rifkin is a Pan-African geopolitical analyst and founder of The Witty Observer. He decodes Africa’s tradition-transformation nexus through fearless analysis that bridges Western policy circles and African realities.